Baseball Prospectus: Top 11 Mets Prospects

In Kevin Goldstein's most recent article, he did a write up about the Mets top 11 prospects. As of right now, a lot of scouts and prospect guru's think that the Mets and Astros have the worst two minor league systems around.

Five-Star Prospects
None
Four-Star Prospects
1. Fernando Martinez, OF
Three-Star Prospects
2. Jon Niese, LHP
3. Eddie Kunz, RHP
4. Wilmer Flores, SS
5. Brant Rustich, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
6. Nathan Vineyard, LHP
7. Scott Moviel, RHP
8. Bobby Parnell, RHP
9. Dan Murphy, 3B
10. Ruben Tejada, SS/2B
11. Stephen Clyne, RHP

Just Missing: Nick Carr, RHP; Nick Evans, 1B; Francisco Pena, C

I wouldn't be surprised if one of the two or three star prospects busted out onto the scene and became a 5 star prospect next year. It happened with Deolis Guerra who was ranked as an "average prospect" in last years edition of the Mets top 11 prospects. Now, Deolis Guerra is the top prospect in the Twins system.

Our system could be one of the top systems in a few years.. this is all depending on the Latin scouting and signing department and the upcoming draft in June. If Omar and Co. can use our 3 first round picks wisely, maybe we can steal another David Wright or Albert Pujols...

If anyone has a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, please feel free to share what else Kevin Goldstein said in his post. You can contact me at my e-mail address (tyflomets4life@yahoo.com) if you would like to share.

Keith Law: Top 100 Prospects

Today Keith Law came out with his Top 100 Prospects in the entire MLB. Here's what he had to say about some Mets prospects and former Met prospects..

#10 Mets OF Fernando Martinez... It's been fashionable this offseason for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-à-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown. Martinez's 2007 performance doesn't impress on a quick look, but consider these facts: He played the entire season at age 18 in AA; and he was hitting .309/.372/.409 as late as May 25 before the effects of a contusion on his left hand ruined what remained of his season. He was shut down on June 23 and missed the rest of the year. Martinez shows huge raw power in BP that will make its way into his game performances, and he has a solid approach with good pitch recognition for someone so young. He has good range in center and a plus arm if he outgrows center field and has to move to right. To put his development in more perspective, if he'd played a full year at AA and hit .290/.360/.410 or so, he would have been on pace to debut in the big leagues at 19 or 20 and be a big league regular before he turned 21. He's going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective.


#35 Twins OF Carlos Gomez... Gomez can fly and will be one of the fastest players in the majors once he is there for good. The rest of his game needs work, as his substantial tools don't translate into immediate major league success. He has a very quick bat but relies on his wrists and hands, hitting off his front foot too often and never getting his weight back to drive balls, so he makes contact but right now doesn't project to hit for power. In the field, he is more advanced, running down balls in all directions in center field and showing a 60-65 arm on the 20-80 scale. He missed most of the second half of the 2007 season due to a broken hamate bone in his hand, an injury that can linger into the following season, so his short-term projection isn't bright, but he has star potential if he is given time and instruction.


#80 Twins RHSP Deolis Guerra... Guerra is almost all projection, but there's a lot on which a scout can dream. His velocity is fringe-average, but he'll flash low 90s out of nowhere, and his curveball is inconsistent at best. He has a plus changeup with good fading action. But the appeal here is that he turns 19 in April and is very projectable, with the broad-shouldered frame we look for when forecasting velocity increases and durability. His probability is low, but there's a chance he'll be up in the top 20-30 in a year or two.

I already miss Guerra and Mulvey.. but then again WE HAVE SANTANA!

Santana? What did we give up for him?

Finally, it has happened. The Mets have acquired 2-time Cy Young Winner Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber, and Deolis Guerra. The deal will not be finalized until the Mets and Santana's agent agree to a contract extension and all the players must pass physicals. The Mets have a 72 hour window to sign the best pitcher in baseball. I am so excited for spring training now. Before this trade, Billy Wagner thought that we were a 3rd place team. Now, we're already the favorite to go to the World Series.. and we still have Mike Pelfrey AND Fernando Martinez. Omar had to do this trade and by doing this, we have no need to sign Livan Hernandez or Kyle Lohse.

Back to the prospects... The Mets gave up 4 of their top ten prospects.. #'s 2,3,4, and #7 according to Baseball Americas post in November. Heres a little information on the prospects that were traded...

Kevin Mulvey: has the potential to be a #3-#4 starter on a good staff. Average stuff, great command. Was the first choice in the 06 draft for the Mets. Very close to being a MLB player.

Philip Humber: #3 pick in the 2004 draft, under went Tommy John Surgery in his first pro season. Came back last year and looked ok in AAA. Will need another year in the minors but should be ready in 2009. Humber once had the potential to be a #1 starter in the Majors, but he is projected to be a #3 starter at best, maybe even less.

Carlos Gomez: is what scouts like to call a five-tool player, a combination of offensive ability that includes power and speed as well as an above-average defensive game and a strong arm. He has worked to cut down a strikeout rate that was high during the early part of a minor league career that began in 2004 after the Mets signed him out of the Dominican Republic. He made his major league debut last May and hit .232. (USA Today)

Deolis Guerra: a young super-prospect with #1 starter potential. Has a dominant change-up, and a fastball that keeps gaining velocity as he grows. Had an adequate season last year, but showed dominance at times. He was also one of the youngest players in his league last year. Could be a future #1 and Cy Young Candidate.

You may be thinking... "Why would you trade so much young talent?!" Well, we have three very good draft picks during the first and supplemental-first rounds of next June's draft.

• The18th overall pick from the Braves as compensation from the signing of Tom Glavine.
• The 22nd overall pick due to the performance of last years team.
• The 33rd overall pick in compensation from the signing of Tom Glavine.

Thats not all, The Mets signed 15 players internationally in the summer of 2007, more than any other organization, and has tried to use that market to find impact talent. Our lower levels of the minor leagues are stocked with talent, and our very good draft picks will help us get some better talent flowing through.

In the past few years, the Mets have had to surrender their 1st round picks because of free-agent signings and haven't tried to compensate by exceeding MLB's bonus guidelines with other picks. Minaya said that could change in the near future.

"We've adhered to the commissioner's slot recommendations," Minaya said. "We've been good citizens. But not all the teams have done that, and the competitive balance is not fair. We have to take that position under review as an organization." (Baseball America)

Don't worry, we now have an easy ride to the playoffs and hopefully more in 2008!

Former Met Prospect: Gaby Hernandez

Over at Baseball Prospectus, They recently wrote an article about the Marlins top prospects. I found it interesting to see Gaby Hernandez listed as a 3-star prospect. I've heard that he was a really good prospect so I expected a 3 or 4 star rating. Heres what they had to say about Hernandez...

5. Gaby Hernandez, RHP
DOB: 5/21/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 3^rd round, 2004, Belen Jesuit HS (FL)
2007 Stats: 4.22 ERA at Double-A (153.2-144-56-113)

Year In Review: The former Mets prospect continued his one-level-at-a-time progression with a solid but unspectacular showing at Double-A.

The Good: Hernandez has average velocity, but he can dial it up to 95 at times, and his fastball has excellent life. His power curve ball is his best offering and a true out pitch at times. He's big, athletic, and durable, with no history of arm problems and easy mechanics.

The Bad: Hernandez's inconsistency is both baffling and incredibly frustrating, as he can look big league-ready in one start, and then got rocked in the next. He needs to improve his change up to make him more effective against left-handers, and he tends to make bad innings worse by getting into funks where he overthrows and loses command.

Fun Fact: Hernandez's ERA jumped from 3.54 to 4.22 in his final two starts of the year, as he gave up 16 runs in 6 1/3 innings.

Perfect World Projection: A rotation workhorse.

Timetable: Hernandez will get the difficult assignment of pitching in the high-octane environment of Triple-A Albuquerque in 2008, but should make his big-league debut at some point during the season.

For those of you who don't know, Gaby Hernandez was traded for C Paul Lo Duca in November of 2005. It will be interesting to see how he develops and if he can take the challenge of the next level of the minor leagues... AAA baseball.

Here is the link to the original report of the trade from MSNBC.