Baseball Prospectus: Top 11 Mets Prospects

In Kevin Goldstein's most recent article, he did a write up about the Mets top 11 prospects. As of right now, a lot of scouts and prospect guru's think that the Mets and Astros have the worst two minor league systems around.

Five-Star Prospects
None
Four-Star Prospects
1. Fernando Martinez, OF
Three-Star Prospects
2. Jon Niese, LHP
3. Eddie Kunz, RHP
4. Wilmer Flores, SS
5. Brant Rustich, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
6. Nathan Vineyard, LHP
7. Scott Moviel, RHP
8. Bobby Parnell, RHP
9. Dan Murphy, 3B
10. Ruben Tejada, SS/2B
11. Stephen Clyne, RHP

Just Missing: Nick Carr, RHP; Nick Evans, 1B; Francisco Pena, C

I wouldn't be surprised if one of the two or three star prospects busted out onto the scene and became a 5 star prospect next year. It happened with Deolis Guerra who was ranked as an "average prospect" in last years edition of the Mets top 11 prospects. Now, Deolis Guerra is the top prospect in the Twins system.

Our system could be one of the top systems in a few years.. this is all depending on the Latin scouting and signing department and the upcoming draft in June. If Omar and Co. can use our 3 first round picks wisely, maybe we can steal another David Wright or Albert Pujols...

If anyone has a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, please feel free to share what else Kevin Goldstein said in his post. You can contact me at my e-mail address (tyflomets4life@yahoo.com) if you would like to share.

Mets new Top 10 Prospects

Over at Amazin Avenue, they did a post about the newly formed edition of the Mets Top 1o Prospects. They went in-depth and did a very good job with this. Here you go.


1. Fernando Martinez, OF, DOB: 10/10/1988 (Age: 19)

Somehow the Mets managed to hang onto their best prospect while still acquiring the best pitcher in baseball. The inclusion of Martinez in the deal would have made it tough to swallow, I think. Not that I wouldn't still be excited about Santana, but there's a lot to love about Martinez and I would really like to see him develop into a star with the Mets.

Martinez hit .271/.336/.377 in 236 at-bats with Double-A Binghamton last season as an 18-year-old. Those numbers may not seem terribly spectacular, but you have to remember that Martinez put them up in a league where the average age was better than 25. He figures to be a low Top-15 prospect in all of baseball once the 2008 rankings come out.

2. Jon Niese, LHP, DOB: 10/27/1986 (Age: 21)

Jon Niese is a lefty who pitched in A-ball last season. With their top two minor league starters en route to Minnesota, Niese becomes the Mets' top pitching prospect. He had very strong peripherals in 2007 (110 strikeouts, 31 walks, 9 homeruns in 134.1 innings) but a nothing-special 4.29 ERA. His BABIP was an absurd .346 last season, so that should come down a bit. Look for him to start the year in Double-A.

3. Eddie Kunz, RHP, DOB: 4/8/1986 (Age: 21)

Kunz was the closer for Oregon State before the Mets selected him with the 42nd overall pick last year (compensation for losing Roberto Hernandez). He appeared in twelve games with the Brooklyn Cyclones last year, stinking up the joint to the tune of a 6.75 ERA over 12.0 innings. He allowed only eight hits and no homeruns, but he walked eight while striking out nine. One of the walks was intentional, the rest presumably unintentional. Not much of a sample to go on here, but expect him to begin 2008 in A-ball Savannah.

4. Brant Rustich, RHP, DOB: 1/23/1985 (Age: 23)

Rustich was a second rounder last June out of UCLA. He allowed just six hits and a walk while striking out ten in 10.1 innings with Kingsport (Rookie). He continued pitching well after earning a promotion to Brooklyn, posting a 2.13 ERA and allowing just five baserunners (four hits) in 12.2 innings. Two of the four hits were homeruns. He should be teammates with Kunz next year in Savannah.

5. Joe Smith, RHP, DOB: 3/22/1984 (Age: 23)

Joe Smith got off to a great start with the Mets last year after making the big club out of spring training. He struck out 45 batters in 44.1 innings but allowed 69 baserunners over that span (48 hits, 21 walks, 7 HBP). The result was a crummy 1.56 WHIP and a better-than-it-should-have-been ERA of 3.45. With Duaner Sanchez possibly ready by Opening Day and Matt Wise signing a big league deal with the club a couple of months ago, Smith may be ticketed for Triple-A when camp breaks in April.

6. Nick Evans, 1B, DOB: 1/30/1986 (Age: 22)

Evans was slated to play winter ball in Hawaii this offseason but was kept out after the Mets found that he had a stress fracture in his right hand. They are hopeful that he will be ready to roll for spring training.

Evans hit an impressive .286/.374/.476 with St. Lucie last season. He annihilated lefties to the tune of .343/.431/.576, but he'll have to do better than .263/.355/.435 against righties if he has any chance to make it all the way to the bigs. He's already as far to the left of the defensive spectrum as he can be without becoming a full-time DH, so clearly his bat is going to be his ticket. His plate discipline has been impressive, and if he can add some bulk to his 6'2" frame (he's listed at 180 pounds) then he may develop the power necessary to be a big leaguer some day.

7. Stephen Clyne, RHP, DOB: 9/22/1984 (Age: 23)

Clyne was drafted out of Clemson in the third round last year, 123rd overall. Baseball America's Aaron Fitt says that he "has a funky arm action but decent stuff out of the pen, with a 90-92 mph fastball with tailing life and a slightly above-average slider in the 82-85 range". He notched a 2.05 ERA in 26.1 innings with Brooklyn last year, striking out 30 but allowing 19 walks. He's another decent relief prospect in the Mets' system and should wind up -- let me know if this sounds familiar -- with Savannah in 2008.

8. Scott Moviel, RHP, DOB: 5/7/1988 (Age: 19)

Moviel was taken 77th overall last year out of Saint Edward High School (OH) and tossed 40 innings with the GCL Mets (Rookie). He struck out 37 and walked just 11, posting a 3.38 ERA. Per Jim Callis, Moviel is a "6-foot-10, 245-pounder whose stuff keeps getting better. He could be a monster in a couple of years."

9. Brahiam Maldonado, OF, DOB: 9/18/1985 (Age: 22)

Maldonado hit .310/.349/.500 with Savannah (A) last year, showing good power if unspectacular strike zone judgment (79 strikeouts to just 19 walks in 306 at-bats). He will start the season in St. Lucie (High-A), and if his power carries over and he can improve his plate discipline he could move up this list posthaste.

10. Nathan Vineyard, LHP, DOB: 10/3/1988 (Age: 19)

Yet another 2007 draftee, Vineyard was taken 47th overall out of Woodland High School (GA), just five picks after Eddie Kunz. Mostly a starter with the GCL Mets last year, Vineyard struck out 33 batters to just nine walks in 27.1 innings. He also gave up four homeruns in that span, largely accounting for his bloated 5.27 ERA. He isn't an extreme flyball pitcher, so we'll see if the homeruns were just a small sample size fluke.

The players that I am mostly excited about on that list are Scott Moviel, and Eddie Kunz. They both have potential and are pretty sure bets to at least reach the majors. Heres Jim Callis's revised top 10...

Mets Top 10
1. Fernando Martinez, of
So far ahead of the rest of the system, but still a long way from his ceiling.
2. Eddie Kunz, rhp
It's not a good sign when a reliever from the most recent draft is your No. 2 prospect.
3. Brant Rustich, rhp
It's worse when a reliever from the most recent draft is your No. 3 prospect as well.
4. Jon Niese, lhp
Young lefty with solid stuff will pitch in Double-A at age 21.
5. Nathan Vineyard, lhp
Sandwich pick last June has the potential for three average or better pitches.
6. Robert Parnell, rhp
Gets whiffs with his fastball and slider, but must refine his changeup to stay a starter.
7. Joe Smith, rhp
Sidearm reliever made his big league debut 10 months after getting drafted.
8. Scott Moviel, rhp
He's 6-foot-11 and already touches 94 mph, though his breaking ball needs work.
9. Danny Murphy, 3b
His third-base defense is an issue, but he has the second-best bat in the system.
10. Wilmer Flores, 3b/ss
Signed out of Venezuela for $750,000, he draws some Miguel Cabrera comps.

Its surely a good thing that we have 3 1st round draft picks plus a good Latin American scouting department. Our minor league system should be re-stocked in a year or so.

Mets 1B Prospects: Evans and Carp

Over at Project Prospect, they do a great job of evaluating and ranking the top prospects in the game as well as the top prospects on each team. Today, they did a post on the Top 10 1B prospects in the MLB. There were no Mets minor league players in the top 10 but they did include Mike Carp and Nick Evans in the "Honorable Mention" section. Heres what they had to say...


Mike Carp (NYM, 6/30/86, ETA: 2010) wasn’t ready for Double-A last year. And as a guy who doesn’t move well, he’s going to have trouble emerging unless he finds a way to hit the ball hard more frequently. But he was a 21-year-old in Double-A.

Nick Evans (NYM, 1/30/86, ETA: 2010) was a below-average hitter in Low-A (2006) and an average hitter on the road last year in High-A. But he pounded the ball at home and he draws a good amount of walks.


I think more highly of Nick Evans than Mike Carp but I'm not a scout. If you have not seen Project Prospects Top 5 Mets prospects, check it out.. Click Here.

Two Mets prospects named to "31st Team"

Over at Baseball America, they recently did a report on the prospects that just missed making their teams prospect lists. Well, Dylan Owen and Ezequiel Carrera of the Mets were both named to the list. Heres what they had to say...

Ezequiel Carrera:

Born: June 11, 1987. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 175. Signed: Venezuela, 2005. Signed by:

Eddy Toledo.

Carrera has moved slower than most of the Mets' Latin prospects that the organization hopes to develop into big league regulars, but he started to make believers in 2007. He batted .341 in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and emerged as the best center fielder at the lower levels of the New York system. Carrera profiles as a fourth outfielder because of his lack of power but he could have the small-ball skills to become a regular. He has a short, contact-oriented swing with no real load to speak of, so he's unlikely to ever hit for much pop. But he's willing to draw walks, has improved as a bunter and is a plus runner, though he's not a burner. He looks like a traditional No. 2 hitter. Defensively, he's accomplished in center field, with above-average range and an accurate if below-average arm. Carrera is likely to jump on the fast track and start 2008 in high Class A.

Dylan Owen

Born: July 12, 1986. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 185. Drafted: Francis Marion (S.C.), 2007 (20th round). Signed by: Marlin McPhail.

Owen dominated hitters during his college career at Francis Marion (S.C.), earning NCAA Division II 2007 pitcher-of-the-year honors after going 10-1, 1.04 and setting the Peach Belt Conference career strikeout record with 334 in three seasons. His success carried over into his pro debut, as he took advantage of short-season Brooklyn's pitcher-friendly Keyspan Park like few pitchers have. Signed for $50,000 in the 20th round, Owen claimed two-thirds of the New York-Penn League's pitching triple crown, leading in wins (nine) and ERA (1.49). He has a shorter and wider body than scouts would like but also solid-average stuff and an advanced feel pitching. He spots his 86-90 mph fastball to all four quadrants of the strike zone, and while he has below-average velocity, he can get to 91-92 when needed, even late in games. He has above-average fastball command, and he can vary his breaking balls depending on the situation, using shorter sliders for groundballs and bigger curves for strikeouts. Owen doesn't have much projection or a true plus pitch, so he's unlikely to become an elite prospect. But he's likely to get pushed aggressively to see if he can get advanced hitters out, and he could jump to high Class A in 2008.


As many have stated before, the Mets farm system is gushing with talent in the lower levels, but it has yet to show up in the upper parts of the minor league system. The amateur draft in June will help this farm system immensely. Look for the Mets to have some really good A++ prospects coming up through the system over the course of the next few years.

AAA Team On the Move Again?

The New York Mets are showing interest in relocating their top minor league team to Syracuse, N.Y.. Senator Charles Schumer and Mets owner Fred Wilpon have spoken about a potential move of the baseball team's Triple-A affiliate from New Orleans to Syracuse for the 2009 season.

"They think that having teams in New York is to their benefit, and it would grow regional interest in the team and the fan base," Schumer, D-N.Y., said. The Mets have their a Double-A team in Binghamton N.Y..

The Syracuse Chiefs, a Toronto Blue Jays affiliate are thinking of ending their 30-year agreement which expires at the end of the 2008 season. The Yankees left Syracuse in 1977. In their 30-year partnership with Toronto, the Chiefs have had 22 losing seasons and only five playoff appearances, without winning a International League championship.

The Chiefs are making a series of improvements at Alliance Bank Stadium. The removal of the artificial turf field and the installation of grass, which the Mets prefer for their players. Other improvements may include moving the bullpens from behind the outfield fence to a new location on the field, building an earthen berm behind the outfield fence where fans can watch the game, and a children's park in the existing picnic area behind the right-field fence.

No deal between the Mets and Syracuse can be signed until after the upcoming season, during a two-week window in September. That is also when the Mets' agreement with the New Orleans Zephyrs expires. The Mets have been part of the revitalization of New Orleans since Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005, donating new playground equipment and working with youth programs.

Before moving to New Orleans last year, the Mets had their Triple-A team in Norfolk, Va., for 39 years, and owned the franchise until about 15 years ago.

Someones take on our prospects in 2008...

I was just searching the web and came across a Mets web site that had an interesting article on how the Mets rush there prospects and where they should play in 2008. I clicked on the comments and I saw an interesting opinion that someone wrote in the comments section of the post... here it goes..

"I could not disagree with you more on Pelfrey being ready. All 3 SP, Pelfrey, Humber and Mulvey should start and finish the 2008 season in AAA. None are ready! Humber has not been hurt other then the Tommy John and he has only pitched a full year since then. Pelfrey is still working on his second and third pitch. Just the fastball will not cut it.
I do agree that the Mets have been rushing their pitching prospects. Milledge I agree was also rushed. But before we add Gomez to that list lets see where the Mets place him for this season. Should be in AAA as well."

So a AAA pitching rotation with Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey leading the way? I agree with Humber and Mulvey but not Pelfrey. He should be our #5 starting pitcher for the whole season. Next year when Pedro and Orlando Hernandez are likely gone.. we will have room in our rotation for either Kevin Mulvey or Phillip Humber. As for Carlos Gomez, he needs at least another season of AAA ball maybe even more. Don't rush them, let them develop and then our prospects will start to produce immediately when they reach the Majors for good.

Mets gave to much for Angel Pagan

I'm a day late on this one but the Mets re-acquired OF Angel Pagan in exchange for OF Corey Coles and RP Ryan Meyers. Over at MetsMerized, Joe D examines the trade for Pagan, and from his findings, I think the Mets may have made a mistake. Joe D took the time to take an in-depth look at both of the player that we traded...

Joe D on Corey Coles...

"Last season the 25-year old Corey Coles had a solid season in Triple-A batting .286 in 388 at-bats, with 11 stolen bases for New Orleans. In 2006, he led the Florida State League in batting with a .341 average and swiped 21 bases. He is a top of the order hitter with a solid batting eye, great speed and gap power. He is one of those rare kids who actually walks as much as he strikes out, and his career on-base percentage is .367. The left-handed hitter put together a 13-game hitting streak from Aug. 5-18, and also hit safely in 12 straight games from April 19-30, while recording 47 multi-hit games. Although he zipped through three levels from Port St. Lucie to New Orleans in 12 months, and made two All Star teams in the process, the Mets said he was not ready to contribute any time soon."

Joe D on Ryan Meyers...

"The other minor leaguer was 22-year old starter turned reliever Ryan Meyers. Meyers is a tall lanky right hander who turned in a spectacular season after being converted to a reliever. Last season he pitched in 33 games for Class-A Savannah and saved 13 games while posting an ERA of 2.14. He was absolutely dominating after allowing only 28 hits in 42 innings while striking out an impressive 48 batters. He only dished out 14 walks all season and batters hit only .185 against him. Prior to last season, Meyers had been very unimpressive as a starter for three years."

From looking at his post, I got very nervous that we gave up an above average outfielder with patience and speed and a young developing pitching prospect for a player who will most likely not be on the Mets after this next season. I also question why we needed Pagan. We have many backup outfielders and if we were in dire need we could have just as easily called up the now traded Corey Coles. Some of Omar's trades just dont makes sense to me. So far this off-season, i approve of 0/2 of the trades that the Mets have made.

Mulvey On Trade Rumors and More

Don Burke at The Star Ledger writes about Kevin Mulvey, the recent trade rumors, him working out at his old college and making it in the Majors:

"You know there's nothing you can do about it," Mulvey said of the trade rumors. "It's not up to you what happens. You can't pack your bags, get on a bus and go to Shea and say, 'I'm in the big leagues now.' It's up to somebody else to call you up and give you your opportunity and, in the off-season, seeing your name mentioned in trade talks, I wouldn't say it's a bad thing because it means other teams want you. There's nothing you can do about that. If you get traded, you get traded. I just go about my day working out and trying to get better."

Mulvey throws all four of his pitches fastball, slider, curve, changeup -- for strikes, as evidenced by his strikeout-to-walk ratio (110-43) in 151 2/3 innings of work last season with Binghamton. Mulvey allowed just four home runs last season.