Saturday, January 5, 2008

Mets vs. The Rest Rotation Edition

As we all know, the Phillies won the NL East Division last year... blah blah blah. Well now Mr Jimmy Rollins is right, they are the team to beat and thats what the Mets intend to do. Lets see how the Mets Starters look against the rest of the rotations in the NL East (2007 season stats are shown.) I will score each team kind of like the MVP voting system..

5 points for first place
4 points for second place
3 points for third place
2 points for fourth place
1 point for last place

#1 SP
Mets: Pedro Martinez 3-1 2.57 ERA
Braves: John Smoltz 14-8 3.11 ERA
Phillies: Cole Hamels 15-5 3.39 ERA
Nationals: Shawn Hill 4-5 3.42 ERA
Marlins: Scott Olsen 10-15 5.81 ERA

Three out of the five teams in the NL East have very god aces, the Nationals and Marlins being let out. In my opinion, John Smoltz has the advantage out of this group with Hamels coming in second, Pedro in third, Shawn Hill in fourth and Olsen rounding out the pack.

#2 SP
Mets: John Maine 15-10 3.91 ERA
Braves: Tim Hudson 16-10 3.33 ERA
Phillies: Brett Myers 5-7 4.33 ERA
Nationals: John Patterson 1-5 7.47 ERA
Marlins: Sergio Mitre 5-8 4.65 ERA

If it were the first half of last season, John Maine would get the nod over Tim Hudson, but Maine didn't perform quite as well down the stretch. Brett Myers was ok in the bullpen last year but he is a #3 on a good staff. Patterson was just horrid last season maybe he can rebound..and Mitre isn't much so the order goes like this.. Hudson, Maine, Myers, Mitre, Patterson

#3 SP
Mets: Oliver Perez 15-10 3.56 ERA
Braves: Tom Glavine 13-8 4.45 ERA
Phillies: Kyle Kendrick 10-4 3.87 ERA
Nationals: Jason Bergmann 6-6 4.45 ERA
Marlins: Andrew Miller 5-5 5.63 ERA

Once again the Braves are in the top two with Tom Glavine as their #3. In the beginning of last season he was our ACE so he has to get the nod here only because he is more proven than Perez and Kendrick. Andrew Miller is a future star and Bergmann is not much to write home about. The Order goes like this.. Glavine, Perez, Kendrick, Miller, Bergmann

#4 SP
Mets: Orlando Hernandez 9-5 3.72 ERA
Braves: Chuck James 11-10 4.24 ERA
Phillies: Jamie Moyer 14-12 5.01 ERA
Nationals: John Lannan 2-2 4.15 ERA
Marlins: Rick VandenHurk 4-6 6.83 ERA

I can't believe that Jamie Moyer actualy got 14 wins last season.. but thats besides the point. Orlando Hernandez is the better of the five but he needs to stay healthy and he might not even be in the starting rotation if the Mets acquire Johan Santana. John Lannan had some good starts during the strech last season and VandenHurk is nothing more than a future long reliver or #5. The order is Hernandez, James, Lannan, Moyer, and VandenHurk.

#5 SP
Mets: Mike Pelfrey 3-8 5.57 ERA
Braves: Mike Hampton 0-0 0.00 ERA
Phillies: Adam Eaton 10-10 6.29 ERA
Nationals: Matt Chico 7-9 4.63 ERA
Marlins: Ricky Nolasco 1-2 5.48 ERA

I really want to put Mike Pelfrey #1 because of his potential, but the experience of Hampton is halting me.. but he is coming off a major surgey and has not pitched in the big leagues since 05'. Matt Chico did a solid job for Manny Acta, and Nolasco is way better than hes numbers can perceive. Adam Eaton is just terrible and $21 million over 3 years is looking pretty bad... maybe he can bounce back. The order goes like this... Pelfrey, Chico, Hampton, Eaton, Nolasco. I put Eaton in front of Nolasco because Eaton is primed for a comeback but i could be wrong here.

Top Reserve
Mets: Phillip Humber 0-0 7.71 ERA
Braves: Jair Jurrjens 3-1 4.70 ERA
Phillies: J.D. Durbin 6-5 6.06 ERA
Nationals: Tyler Clippard 3-1 6.33 ERA
Marlins: Josh Johnson (recovering from injury) 0-0 0.00 ERA

This one was pretty tough. The Braves and Phillies both have solid depth at the SP Position, but the Braves come out on top. Jurrjens is loaded with potential to ba a #3 or #4 and to have him s your top reserve is and advantage. The Durbins, Chad and J. D., are solid back up options. Humber is primed for a better season because last year was his first full year back from Tommy John Surgery.. Josh Johnson would be the #1 on the Marlins rotation if he was healthy but he isn't and we all know what Tyler Clippard can do.. he pitched against us when he was with the Yankees. He could crack the rotation out of Spring Training. The order goes like this.. Jurrjens, Clippard, Durbin, Johnson, and Humber. Johnson is put there simply becuase he has the potential to come back at 100% and be thier Ace.

So the total point score goes like this...

Braves: 27
Mets: 22
Phillies: 17
Nationals: 16
Marlins: 9

So based on this assumption, the Braves have the best starting pitching in the NL East with the Mets in second, Phillies third, Nationals a close 4th, and the Marlins in dead last. Do you agree with these rankings?


The Man said...

you=crazy if you think Glavine is a better pitcher in 2008 then Oliver Perez.

Tyler Florence (Ty Flo) said...

Glavine wont be better than Perez. I just based it on experience. How can you rate a future HOF,who is now a #3 starter, after an inconsistent reclamation project? But. Oliver Perez was a very close second.

Superman said...

Its Andrew Miller with the Fish. Adam Miller is the super prospect with the Indians

Tyler Florence (Ty Flo) said...

I can't believe I messed them up.. thanks for catching me on my mistake. =D