Thursday, January 31, 2008

Keith Law: Top 100 Prospects

Today Keith Law came out with his Top 100 Prospects in the entire MLB. Here's what he had to say about some Mets prospects and former Met prospects..

#10 Mets OF Fernando Martinez... It's been fashionable this offseason for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-à-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown. Martinez's 2007 performance doesn't impress on a quick look, but consider these facts: He played the entire season at age 18 in AA; and he was hitting .309/.372/.409 as late as May 25 before the effects of a contusion on his left hand ruined what remained of his season. He was shut down on June 23 and missed the rest of the year. Martinez shows huge raw power in BP that will make its way into his game performances, and he has a solid approach with good pitch recognition for someone so young. He has good range in center and a plus arm if he outgrows center field and has to move to right. To put his development in more perspective, if he'd played a full year at AA and hit .290/.360/.410 or so, he would have been on pace to debut in the big leagues at 19 or 20 and be a big league regular before he turned 21. He's going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective.

#35 Twins OF Carlos Gomez... Gomez can fly and will be one of the fastest players in the majors once he is there for good. The rest of his game needs work, as his substantial tools don't translate into immediate major league success. He has a very quick bat but relies on his wrists and hands, hitting off his front foot too often and never getting his weight back to drive balls, so he makes contact but right now doesn't project to hit for power. In the field, he is more advanced, running down balls in all directions in center field and showing a 60-65 arm on the 20-80 scale. He missed most of the second half of the 2007 season due to a broken hamate bone in his hand, an injury that can linger into the following season, so his short-term projection isn't bright, but he has star potential if he is given time and instruction.

#80 Twins RHSP Deolis Guerra... Guerra is almost all projection, but there's a lot on which a scout can dream. His velocity is fringe-average, but he'll flash low 90s out of nowhere, and his curveball is inconsistent at best. He has a plus changeup with good fading action. But the appeal here is that he turns 19 in April and is very projectable, with the broad-shouldered frame we look for when forecasting velocity increases and durability. His probability is low, but there's a chance he'll be up in the top 20-30 in a year or two.

I already miss Guerra and Mulvey.. but then again WE HAVE SANTANA!


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