To introduce myself to the Mets4Life world, I’ve been a Mets fan for the last 40 years (yeah, I’m getting old), I attend about 15 games a year and see most of the rest, and I am perhaps too much a student of the game. I know baseball will always finds its audience through offense, but I love pitching. Here in late February, the season is on the rubber and moving toward the wind-up.
This looking forward is the second best time of the year. My evil empire Yankee friends insist our Mets credo is always “Wait till next year.” It is true that, like many of you, I tend to be an optimist but I’m a realistic one…and I believe this requires a degree of pessimism. During the off-season I envision the best that can happen in the coming season while preparing my dreams for the most likely and still keep worst case scenario on the far periphery. In 2008, Mets’ dreams of a championship are probably the most reasonable they have been since the late 1980s. As for the very worst case, we just lived through it in September ‘07. So, what is that “Most Likely?”
For this and my next piece, here in the blog world—where Mets fans will be ripped by Phillies fans and Red Sox fans and those who “know” Jaba/Hughes are Koufax/Drysdale—we’ll look at what might be realistic to anticipate.
We’ll begin with the whole shebang—end of season predictions—to provide a sense of the numbers meant by being realistic. We’ll go from there to pitching. Then in Part II we can look at the lineup, fielding, and intangibles. Of course these are all pure opinions but real ones, we look forward to hearing your thoughts.
The big picture probably puts us in the World Series…but losing.
It is not that there is a specific American League team that will definitely be there and definitely beat us (although a Boston 1986 reversal is a strong possibility). But a realist has to accept that making the playoffs, winning the first round, second round, and the series is a lot to assume. In fact the math is amazing, if we were a 4:1 favorite for each step (which we won’t be), that makes it 2:3 against our winning it all…luckily the game isn’t played in a calculator.
Pitching looks good, particularly starting…less so in relief.
Starters
I was a big fan of the Pedro trade (of course I loved Roberto Alomar and knew we blew it with Edgardo Alfonzo). A proven, aging AL pitcher, in a hitter’s park, with innings issues moved to a pitcher’s park without DHs and good fielders, and you’re looking good. Downside = injuries. When healthy Pedro rarely has pitched badly for the Mets.
Johan (even September ’07 Santana) should be a true #1 as long as he is healthy…so put in 7 missed starts for pessimism and you’d still have 15-19 wins, say 17 wins.
Pedro starts healthy and should be at least as good as his short stints in ’06 and ’07. If pessimism puts him out half the season and still gives him 12 wins.
El Duque…okay, who knows? Forget pessimism his last 5 seasons he’s had 8,8,9,11,9 wins. Even older this year but with a deeper staff and lower expectations. Lets say 9 wins.
Maine and Perez were pretty darn impressive last year. No one would have said 30 wins from them and the Mets miss the playoffs! One year more experience and less pressure…and probably a few fewer starts pending the injuries above. One probably improves and the other fades a bit. That’s 17 and 13, add a pessimistic injury and you have a combined 27 wins.
Pelfrey (and Vargas or Sosa or…)--the sixth starter is sure to get innings if any pessimism above becomes reality whether off the bench or up from AAA. Yet with no permanent ‘08 position, pressure will be lighter than ‘06-07. A fairly modest prediction would be 8 wins.
So, Starters total 73 wins.
Before you say that’s crazy or horrible, that’s exactly what the Red Sox 6 starters had last year! 3-4 wins per middle and late reliever and we’re in the mid-high 90s (Vegas line 93)! If you want to be optimistic 100 wins, but be realistic.
Mets relievers
Everyone points here as a concern and my realism and memory (albeit aging) support this thinking, but not where others imagine. The assumptions seem to be that long relief has enough depth and our closer will be solid with an occasional lapse, and middle relief is the concern. I reverse these.
Long relief might be okay, but it is no certainty. Pelfrey and El Duque are not relievers, so just assuming one will do this well (like in a World Series) is foolish; and given the likelihood of injury openings in the rotation their availability will be rare. There is a lot of potential and choices for middle relief, but it is realistically a crapshoot.
Billy Wagner has been a very good closer for us. There are no lights-out closers, but he has surpassed realistic expectations with some major exceptions. The problem is that history is not kind to relievers and neither is Shea Stadium, very few excel for 2-4 years. And as simply as that, it is more possible that this one-person position has a letdown than any other.
Short relief by contrast has a number of possibilities. Aaron Heilman has been far from a guarantee but has his days, Duaner Sanchez is a (taxi-)fair possibility with great history, and Sosa leads a group of specialists and hard throwers who have shown strength. There is good reason to expect those 3-4 wins from each.
On the mound, it seems realistic to expect a high 90s number of wins, with the risk of our handing half dozen back to the other team in late in the 9th and beyond.
The interesting thing is that apparently the Mets do have to hit, field, and face others. We’ll look at those in Part 2.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
The Mets Realist, Part 1
Thursday, February 21, 2008
2008 Lineup Predictions...
A few weeks ago, I started to predict the statistics for each individual player on the Mets. I waited to post them because I wanted to see what others thought. Here are my predictions compared to others predictions...
My predictions: .301 AVG, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 67 SB
Mlb.com's predictions: .294 AVG, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 73 SB
The Man's predictions: .295 AVG, 14 HR, 70 RBI, 68 SB
Eli's predictions: .289 AVG, 14 HR, 62 RBI
My predictions: .295 AVG, 1 HR, 48 RBI, 15 SB
Mlb.com's predictions: .298 AVG, 2 HR, 44 RBI, 25 SB
The Man's predictions: .302 AVG, 2 HR, 55 RBI, 25 SB
Eli's predictions: .295 AVG, 3 HR, 46 RBI
3B #5 David Wright
My predictions: .327 AVG, 30 HR, 124 RBI, 28 SB
Mlb.com's predictions: .322 AVG, 32 HR, 111 RBI, 27 SB
The Man's predictions: .330 AVG, 34 HR, 128 RBI, 31 SB
Eli's predictions: .312 AVG, 34 HR, 123 RBI
My predictions: .281 AVG, 37 HR, 117 RBI, 23 SB
Mlb.com's predictions: .274 AVG, 34 HR, 115 RBI, 18 SB
The Man's predictions: .280 AVG, 31 HR, 116 RBI, 25 SB
Eli's predictions: .273 AVG, 28 HR, 105 RBI
My predictions: .307 AVG, 18 HR, 73 RBI
Mlb.com's predictions: .315 AVG, 20 HR, 75 RBI
The Man's predictions: .305 AVG, 16 HR, 65 RBI
Eli's predictions: .272 AVG, 16 HR, 73 RBI
My predictions: .270 AVG, 27 HR, 96 RBI
Mlb.com's predictions: .272 AVG, 28 HR, 94 RBI
The Man's predictions: .270 AVG, 28 HR, 94 RBI
Eli's predictions: .262 AVG, 23 HR, 86 RBI
My predictions: .278 AVG, 14 HR, 80 RBI
Mlb.com's predictions: .275 AVG, 18 HR, 74 RBI
The Man's predictions: .278 AVG, 16 HR, 81 RBI
Eli's predictions: .269 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI
My predictions: .249 AVG, 8 HR, 56 RBI
Mlb.com's predictions: .254 AVG, 7 HR, 60 RBI
The Man's predictions: .255 AVG, 10 HR, 60 RBI
Eli's predictions: .246 AVG, 6 HR, 48 RBI
When Mets 4 Life expands, our new staff of writers will predict the statistics of each individual. When they are completed, they will be posted..
Saturday, February 2, 2008
ESPN: Keith Law on the Santana trade
Anyone else going to get their Santana jersey on Monday? I am. =D
Friday, February 1, 2008
The Deed is done, Johan Signs with Mets
According to Mets.com, Johan Santana agreed to a deal with the Mets. The contract is worth approx $137 million over 6 years. Annual Salary= $22,916,667. This contract makes Santana by far the highest paid pitcher in baseball history.
The salary of Johan Santana didn't even matter to me, all I wanted was him to be wearing a uniform with orange and blue on opening day... I got what I wanted. Johan Santana now anchors the best pitching rotation in the National League. Santana has an .800 winning percentage in 24 starts against National League teams. Lets take a look at the Mets 2008 Rotation:
- Johan Santana
- Pedro Martinez
- Oliver Perez
- John Maine
- Orlando Hernandez or Mike Pelfrey
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Stupid Braves fans...
I was reading the Johan Santana to the Mets article on USA Today, and this is what one of the comments said at the bottom of the page...
"This move will give the Mets one pitcher...yeah....one.....if the Mets are thinking that the Pedro of old is coming back....good luck with that....and how old is El Duque? 50? and he throws a wicked 85 mile an hour fastball....and I also like the post that he has got to play in New York....and lots of players have been unable to play in New York...plus the Mets have got to sign him...Santana is great pitcher that had a down year...he was 15-13 and was hittable after the break....so my opinion is big deal. The Mets have finally, finally got a decent pitcher.... I still say the Phillies and Braves will compete for the division and the mets will have to contend with trying out of the cellar behind Florida and Washington.....Go Braves!"
Shows how smart he is. But take a look at this new rotation for the 2008 season...
- Johan Santana
- Pedro Martinez
- John Maine
- Oliver Perez
- Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez
THE METS ARE THE TEAM TO BEAT IN 2008!
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Mets close to acquiring a SP
The Mets are close to a deal with free-agent SP Livan Hernandez. This is according to Tracy Rigolsby in the Rocky Mountain News. The signing would unite the Livan with his brother Orlando in New York. Last year he was 11–11 with a 4.93 ERA in 33 starts for the Diamondbacks, during which opponents hit .308 against him.
Personally, I hate this deal... that is if it really happens. As I stated before, I want Mike Pelfrey to come into his own as a MLB starter, and he can't do that if he is in the minors. What is with Willie and Omar? Why can't they ever give the young kids a starting role with the team?
To me, This means 1 of 2 things...
#1.) The Mets and the Twins could not come to terms with the talks about adding Fernando Martinez to any kind of deal with Johan Santana.
#2.) Willie Randolph and Omar Minaya like declining players that can provide a lot of innings pitched and a high ERA.
The first option seems the most likely to me. Maybe we can re-visit trade talks in July, just around the trade deadline. Or we could just wait until he is a free-agent, if the Twins let him get that far.
IF this is true, and the deal happens, your 2008 Mets Rotation will look something like this...
- Pedro Martinez
- John Maine
- Oliver Perez
- Orlando Hernandez
- Livan Hernandez
Or like this, depending on if Orlando Hernandez is sent to the bullpen...
- Pedro Martinez
- John Maine
- Oliver Perez
- Livan Hernandez
- Mike Pelfrey
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Possible Moves for Omar
We have reached the slowest part of the off-season and well, there is simply nothing to write about unless the signing of Matt Clement and Josh Towers.. but that has no effect on the Mets... but I've been thinking, what smart moves could Omar make? Well, here is a few suggestions from me...
Trade for Johan Santana...
I love our prospects but we need to get an edge. I would perfer that Omar waits until he becomes a free-agent next off-season but if we can pull a trade off that doesn't include Fernando Martinez, then I'm fine with it. Although most fans would haunt Omar Minaya for years if one of those prospects backfired in our faces, just like Scott Kazmir.
Sign Freddy Garcia to an incentive-laden contract with an option for 09'...
Freddy Garcia won't be ready until near the All-Star break but we need options. Gracia seems interested and there just simply aren't any better options. Unless you count Bartolo Colon, but he isn't even touching 90 MPH in the winter leagues. If Garcia would come back to form, the fans would love Omar Minaya again.
Sign Octavio Dotel to a 1-year contract with a vesting option for 09'...
Dotel is a very good reliable reliever out of the pen, when he is healthy. The thing is, he can't stay healthy.. but when he is, he can be a Duaner Sanchez type of pitcher. We need depth in our bullpen and that is what we lacked last season. Adding Octavio to the mix would definitely help solve that problem.
Sign Kevin Mench to a 1-year deal...
The recently acquired RF Ryan Church, is a very light hitting outfielder against left-handed pitchers.. so we need a platoon partner that can absolutely mash left-handers. Kevin Mench is our man. Last season, in 156 at-bats against Left-handers, Mench hit .314 with 8 homers and 26 RBI's. Combine that with Ryan Church vs right-handers, and we have a two headed monster in RF for 2008.
Sign Jason Jennings to a 1-2 year deal...
I know most of you are totally against him but in 2006 he was very good for the Rockies... and in the first half of 2007 he was decent with a 1-4 record and 4.07 ERA in 10 games started. The reason his record is so bad is because the Houston Astros offense was anemic all of last season... but he did blow up in the second half of the season, but thats the risk that your going to have to take.
Trade for Huston Street, and Joe Blanton...
Bullpen help? Check. Starting Pitcher? Check. Lets kill two birds with one stone. I would be more than willing to give 4-5 good prospects for a very good young closer and an innings eating SP. All I ask is that we do everything in our power to keep Fernando Martinez in a Mets uniform. Any prospect beyond him is as good as gone if we can get a package of both Huston Street and Joe Blanton.
I think all of these moves would be smart, but some would be risky. Either way I still believe that Mike Pelfrey should start for a full season in Flushing. If one of these starters were to be signed, we would just simply put Orlando Hernandez in the bullpen and keep Pelfrey as our #5. In my opinion, Kevin Mench would be a very smart signing for the Mets, and we should wait for Santana to be a free-agent at the end of the season... but if Omar pulls the trigger, I'll be fine with that too, just as long as we still have Fernando Martinez.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Give Pelfrey a Chance
There have been many people that think RHP Mike Pelfrey should be moved to the bullpen. I have even touched on this subject... but I have changed my mind about Pelfrey. As of right now, I think that he should have the #5 spot in MLB or AAA starting rotation. Some people may say "he sucked last year or he was 3-7!".. I look past that.. He showed what he is really capable of at the end of last season (3-0 in September).
"Putting Mike Pelfrey in the bullpen is probably the worst thing you can do right now. The thing he needs to do is develop his secondary pitches. Putting him in the pen would be encouraging him to throw nothing but fastballs, and he wouldn't be developing his slider/changeup combination which in the end will make him a much better pitcher." said The Man at Mets Prospectus and I totally agree with that opinion. Lets take a look at Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux's first and second full seasons..
Maddux 1st full season: 6-14 with a 5.61 ERA
Maddux 2nd full season: 18-8 with a 3.18 ERA
Glavine 1st full season: 7-17 with a 4.56 ERA
Glavine 2nd full season: 14-8 with a 3.68 ERA
Convincing? Lets say last year counts as a 1/2 of a season for Pelfrey... Give him the chance to pitch every five days for us against major league hitters. Even if he has a mediocre season, we have four reliable starters in Pedro, Maine, Perez, and Hernandez.. the key to the 2008 Rotation is that they all need to stay healthy. Give Pelfrey a shot for atleast two more years, if he fails, put him in the pen.. He can get hitters out and will be a productive major league player. Hopefully in the Mets rotation. Look for him to breakout during the 2009 season.. but only if he gets the chance to start for a FULL season. I say that there are two options for Mike Pelfrey in 2008...
#1) Give him the #5 slot in the rotation.
#2) Keep him in New Orleans for ALL of next season.
Either way he needs to develop his secondary pitches and he need to do so on a consistent schedule.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Mets Salaries
I wanted to see how much The Wilpons are spending this year (08). These numbers are from Cots Baseball Contracts. The names that are bolded have options or are in their last years of their contract. Take a look.....
- Carlos Beltran $18,500,000.00
- Carlos Delgado $16,000,000.00
- Pedro Martinez $11,000,000.00
- Billy Wagner $10,500,000.00
- Moises Alou $7,500,000.00
- Orlando Hernandez $6,500,000.00
- Luis Castillo $6,000,000.00
- David Wright $5,000,000.00
- Brian Schneider $4,900,000.00
- Jose Reyes $4,000,000.00
- Scott Schowenweis $3,600,000.00
- Ramon Castro $2,300,000.00
- Matt Wise $1,200,000.00
- Marlon Anderson $1,050,000.00
- Damian Easley $950,000.00
- Duaner Sanchez $ 700,000
- Oliver Perez $ 4,000,000.00
- John Maine $ 3,000,000.00
- Aaron Heilman $ 1,000,000.00
- Ryan Church $ 500,000.00
- Brian Stokes $ 380,000.00
- Endy Chavez $ 950,000.00
- Jorge Sosa $ 1,000,000.00
In past 7 years the Mets have spent over $100,000,000.00 four times.
- Opening Day payrolls for 25-man roster
- 2007: $115,231,663
- 2006: $101,084,963
- 2005: $101,305,821
- 2004: $ 96,660,970
- 2003: $117,476,429
- 2002: $ 94,633,593
- 2001: $ 93,674,429
- 2000: $ 79,800,000
A) What free-agents the Mets sign.
B) If they re-sign any of our own players.
I'm hoping that the Twins decide to keep Johan Santana and let him become a free-agent at the end of this upcoming season. This will enable the Mets to pay him money and keep all of their prospects, as opposed to trading 5 player to the Twins for 1...The Braves 1B Mark Texeria is also a free-agent at the end of the '08 season. Look for Omar & Co. to try and sign some big name players next November.
The Mets, Call to Arms...
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Pelfrey to the 'Pen?
According to Buster Olney, via MLBTR, the Mets could trade OF Carlos Gomez, SP Kevin Mulvey, and SU Aaron Heilman to the Oakland Athletics in return for SP Joe Blanton. I really don't like this deal for the Mets. You would have to give up your second best reliever and at least one 5-star prospect in Carlos Gomez. In addition, you would have to include SP Kevin Mulvey, who could end up being very similar to what Joe Blanton is now. I say NO DEAL.
If that fore mentioned deal was to be offered to the Athletics, and excepted, who would be the new Set-up man? Ted Berg at SNY seems to have an answer. Convert RHP Mike Pelfrey into a reliever. As I have stated before, Pelfrey could benefit from having more time to work with pitching coach, Rick Peterson. Berg does not think that we should give up on Pelfrey, noting that Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux both struggled when they were called up to the Majors for the frist time. This would just provide the Mets with a Set-up man while giving Pelf more time with the jacket. Shea Nation also has a post on this topic.
I also have an idea. Sign Octavio Dotel to a 2-year deal. Keep Pelfrey in the minors or bullpen and hope that Dunaner Sanchez can come back at least at a middle reliever.
One deal I would make with the Athletics is this...
Mets Get:
SP Joe Blanton
OF/1B Nick Swisher
Athletics Get:
OF Carlos Gomez
SP?/SUAaron Heilman
SP John Niese
RF Ryan Church
SP Kevin Mulvey
SP Phillip Humber
Sounds like a fair deal to me.. Maybe a young arm from the A's in return. What are your thoughts?
Monday, December 17, 2007
Houston offers deal to Prior
According to ESPN News and MLB.com, the Houston Astros have offered a deal to SP Mark Prior. The right-hander was not tendered a contract from the Cubs earlier this month and he has garnered interest from approximately 10 teams, maybe even more. The Astros offer is rumored to be a 1-year deal with incentives. Prior will not be ready to pitch until late May, maybe even later. The Mets have expressed preliminary interest in Prior earlier this week. As I have said before, this is a low risk, high reward type of move. The Astros are definitely in the market for pitching.. they really have no one behind RHSP Roy Oswalt in their rotation. If Mark Prior could return to form, the Astros would have a very good 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation. Omar should really consider Prior because of the low risk, high reward factor. Just imagine a rotation of...
Pedro Martinez
Mark Prior
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Mike Pelfrey
To have a guy go 15-10 with an 3.56 ERA in your #3 or #4 spot would be very good for the Mets. Not to mention that Mike Pelfrey is still only 24 years old and has time to mature into a star.
Did you know that Oliver Perez is listed as the Mets #1 starter on their depth chart? The depth chart on Mets.com is as follows:
- Oliver Perez
- Orlando Hernandez
- John Maine
- Pedro Martinez
- Mike Pelfrey
Friday, November 30, 2007
Mets 08 Pitching Rotation
SP: Johan Santana '07: 15-13 3.33 ERA
SP: J. Maine 07': 15-10 3.91 ERA
SP: O. Perez 07': 15-10 3.56 ERA
SP: O. Hernandez 07': 9-5 3.72 ERA
SP: M. Pelfrey 07': 3-8 5.57 ERA[11-30-07] This rotation is not "horrible" but it could use some improvement, weather it be from the development of Mike Pelfrey or Phillip Humber or by a free agent signing or trade.
[2-4-07] The addition of Johan Santana is very significant. When you have Oliver Perez and a prospect with a mid 90's heater and a former #1 draft pick as your #1 backup SP, you have a very solid rotation. Not to mention that none of our "projected SP" had an ERA over 4 last year. Wow.
