Keith Law: Top 100 Prospects

Today Keith Law came out with his Top 100 Prospects in the entire MLB. Here's what he had to say about some Mets prospects and former Met prospects..

#10 Mets OF Fernando Martinez... It's been fashionable this offseason for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-à-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown. Martinez's 2007 performance doesn't impress on a quick look, but consider these facts: He played the entire season at age 18 in AA; and he was hitting .309/.372/.409 as late as May 25 before the effects of a contusion on his left hand ruined what remained of his season. He was shut down on June 23 and missed the rest of the year. Martinez shows huge raw power in BP that will make its way into his game performances, and he has a solid approach with good pitch recognition for someone so young. He has good range in center and a plus arm if he outgrows center field and has to move to right. To put his development in more perspective, if he'd played a full year at AA and hit .290/.360/.410 or so, he would have been on pace to debut in the big leagues at 19 or 20 and be a big league regular before he turned 21. He's going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective.


#35 Twins OF Carlos Gomez... Gomez can fly and will be one of the fastest players in the majors once he is there for good. The rest of his game needs work, as his substantial tools don't translate into immediate major league success. He has a very quick bat but relies on his wrists and hands, hitting off his front foot too often and never getting his weight back to drive balls, so he makes contact but right now doesn't project to hit for power. In the field, he is more advanced, running down balls in all directions in center field and showing a 60-65 arm on the 20-80 scale. He missed most of the second half of the 2007 season due to a broken hamate bone in his hand, an injury that can linger into the following season, so his short-term projection isn't bright, but he has star potential if he is given time and instruction.


#80 Twins RHSP Deolis Guerra... Guerra is almost all projection, but there's a lot on which a scout can dream. His velocity is fringe-average, but he'll flash low 90s out of nowhere, and his curveball is inconsistent at best. He has a plus changeup with good fading action. But the appeal here is that he turns 19 in April and is very projectable, with the broad-shouldered frame we look for when forecasting velocity increases and durability. His probability is low, but there's a chance he'll be up in the top 20-30 in a year or two.

I already miss Guerra and Mulvey.. but then again WE HAVE SANTANA!

Santana? What did we give up for him?

Finally, it has happened. The Mets have acquired 2-time Cy Young Winner Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber, and Deolis Guerra. The deal will not be finalized until the Mets and Santana's agent agree to a contract extension and all the players must pass physicals. The Mets have a 72 hour window to sign the best pitcher in baseball. I am so excited for spring training now. Before this trade, Billy Wagner thought that we were a 3rd place team. Now, we're already the favorite to go to the World Series.. and we still have Mike Pelfrey AND Fernando Martinez. Omar had to do this trade and by doing this, we have no need to sign Livan Hernandez or Kyle Lohse.

Back to the prospects... The Mets gave up 4 of their top ten prospects.. #'s 2,3,4, and #7 according to Baseball Americas post in November. Heres a little information on the prospects that were traded...

Kevin Mulvey: has the potential to be a #3-#4 starter on a good staff. Average stuff, great command. Was the first choice in the 06 draft for the Mets. Very close to being a MLB player.

Philip Humber: #3 pick in the 2004 draft, under went Tommy John Surgery in his first pro season. Came back last year and looked ok in AAA. Will need another year in the minors but should be ready in 2009. Humber once had the potential to be a #1 starter in the Majors, but he is projected to be a #3 starter at best, maybe even less.

Carlos Gomez: is what scouts like to call a five-tool player, a combination of offensive ability that includes power and speed as well as an above-average defensive game and a strong arm. He has worked to cut down a strikeout rate that was high during the early part of a minor league career that began in 2004 after the Mets signed him out of the Dominican Republic. He made his major league debut last May and hit .232. (USA Today)

Deolis Guerra: a young super-prospect with #1 starter potential. Has a dominant change-up, and a fastball that keeps gaining velocity as he grows. Had an adequate season last year, but showed dominance at times. He was also one of the youngest players in his league last year. Could be a future #1 and Cy Young Candidate.

You may be thinking... "Why would you trade so much young talent?!" Well, we have three very good draft picks during the first and supplemental-first rounds of next June's draft.

• The18th overall pick from the Braves as compensation from the signing of Tom Glavine.
• The 22nd overall pick due to the performance of last years team.
• The 33rd overall pick in compensation from the signing of Tom Glavine.

Thats not all, The Mets signed 15 players internationally in the summer of 2007, more than any other organization, and has tried to use that market to find impact talent. Our lower levels of the minor leagues are stocked with talent, and our very good draft picks will help us get some better talent flowing through.

In the past few years, the Mets have had to surrender their 1st round picks because of free-agent signings and haven't tried to compensate by exceeding MLB's bonus guidelines with other picks. Minaya said that could change in the near future.

"We've adhered to the commissioner's slot recommendations," Minaya said. "We've been good citizens. But not all the teams have done that, and the competitive balance is not fair. We have to take that position under review as an organization." (Baseball America)

Don't worry, we now have an easy ride to the playoffs and hopefully more in 2008!

Wilpon gives in, Wants Santana

According to Joe Christensen at his blog for the Star-Tribune, the Mets have made an offer for Johan Santana.. The offer isf:

Carlos Gomez
Kevin Mulvey
Deolis Guerra
Phillip Humber

Christensen writes that the Twins really want Fernando Martinez and the deal could get done if the Mets decide to include him. Dont go for it. Santana isn't a guarantee they'll win anything. That is way too much talent to give up when the Red Sox and Yankees arent even being asked to give up anything close to this. Guerra and Martinez are way to high end to be giving up and its very highly unlikely the Mets will draft anyone with their kind of potential anytime soon. Omar is said to be too high on both of them to have included either in the package. Trading all of our Latin prospects will definitely hurt Omar Minaya's credibility because Latin players will not want to come to the Mets if Omar trades them all once they turn out to be decent prospects. I still think the best route is to wait it out until the Twins lessen their demands. I say this because I believe Johan Santana said that he would not exercise his No-Trade-Clause during the season. So if the Twins really do want to trade him and get something in return, we should wait until they lessen their demands. I say a fair deal is four prospects not named Deolis Guerra, Fernando Martinez, and Mike Pelfrey.

Oh yeah, I thought we weren't going to trade all 3 of our great OF prospects? Oh how times have changed.

Heres a quick look at the projection and potential of the mentioned prospects...

SP Kevin Mulvey- has the potential to be a #3-#4 starter on a good staff. Average stuff, great command. Was the first choice in the 06 draft for the Mets. Very close to being a MLB player.

OF Fernando Martinez- Very young, was the youngest player in AA last year. Scouts have projected him to have 35-40 HR power. Might have to move positions due to average defensive skills. Potential future All-Star.

CF Carlos Gomez- He is as fast as Jose Reyes and is above average defensively. Some scouts say he has the build to be a 30 HR threat. Potential future All-Star.

SP Phillip Humber- #3 pick in the 2004 draft, under went Tommy John Surgery in his first pro season. Came back last year and looked ok in AAA. Will need another year in the minors but should be ready in 2009. Humber once had the potential to be a #1 starter in the Majors, but he is projected to be a #2-#3 starter at best, maybe even less.

SP Deolis Guerra- Another young super-prospect with #1 starter potential. Has a dominant change-up, and a fastball that keeps gaining velocity as he grows. Had an adequate season last year, but showed dominance at times. He was also one of the youngest players in his league last year. Could be a future #1 and Cy Young Candidate.

SP Mike Pelfrey- Another former 1st round draft pick that has not produced on a consistent basis. Has an above average fastball, but not much after that. His control can be shaky at times. Needs consistency to excel. Projects to be a #2-#3 SP in the Majors if he can develop his secondary pitches, if not he will be moved to the bullpen.

There we go.. What do you think about the deal?

Gomez has 30-HR Potential?

Over at Dugout Central, former Yankees scout, Mike Pagliarulo compares Carlos Gomez, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Melkey Cabrera. Pagliarulo says this about Gomez:

"The 21 year old has all kinds of ability and projects to being a Premium Category player in 3-5 years. Gomez was called up in the middle of the 2007 season during his development in the minor leagues. He plays aggressively and will make normal development type mistakes at the major league level. His speed is equal to Jose Reyes (SS), and he’s got an XL frame (6’4″, 195 pounds) that is capable of supporting more weight. With improved technique at the plate he could be a 30+ home run guy. Gomez has a plus arm and above average range in the outfield. His development has shown improvement each year. He has the ability to get by at the major league level right now, but another year or two of minor league development is suggested. The Mets tend to rush their young players."

After seeing a scouts view on OF Carlos Gomez, I really hope that the Mets keep him. I look forward to seeing him patrol CF for the next 8-10 years.