New Year, Same bullpen

One week into the season and the frustration continues.

The New York Mets biggest weakness last season was the bullpen. This weakness was not addressed in the off-season. It appears it will be our biggest problem this year.

We eliminated Guillermo Mota, who had some terrible second innings. But I believe he would have been better if we limited him to one inning per outing. They were hoping to get Sanchez back, and we are still hoping. Joe Smith is a question mark, he has yet to prove he can continually get batters out. Then we have another side arm pitcher, Aaron Heilman, who is unreliable. One day he is good, the next he is giving up home runs. I think we do teams a favor by sending back to back side armers at them. I am scared anytime Schoenweiss enters the ballgame. I think if he was used to face one or two lefties only, he might have a chance. But he should NEVER pitch a full inning. Feliciano has been great and Wagner needs to be dominant. But this is the same bullpen that failed us last year, and things are not looking good.

The Mets Realist, Part 1

To introduce myself to the Mets4Life world, I’ve been a Mets fan for the last 40 years (yeah, I’m getting old), I attend about 15 games a year and see most of the rest, and I am perhaps too much a student of the game. I know baseball will always finds its audience through offense, but I love pitching. Here in late February, the season is on the rubber and moving toward the wind-up.

This looking forward is the second best time of the year. My evil empire Yankee friends insist our Mets credo is always “Wait till next year.” It is true that, like many of you, I tend to be an optimist but I’m a realistic one…and I believe this requires a degree of pessimism. During the off-season I envision the best that can happen in the coming season while preparing my dreams for the most likely and still keep worst case scenario on the far periphery. In 2008, Mets’ dreams of a championship are probably the most reasonable they have been since the late 1980s. As for the very worst case, we just lived through it in September ‘07. So, what is that “Most Likely?”

For this and my next piece, here in the blog world—where Mets fans will be ripped by Phillies fans and Red Sox fans and those who “know” Jaba/Hughes are Koufax/Drysdale—we’ll look at what might be realistic to anticipate.

We’ll begin with the whole shebang—end of season predictions—to provide a sense of the numbers meant by being realistic. We’ll go from there to pitching. Then in Part II we can look at the lineup, fielding, and intangibles. Of course these are all pure opinions but real ones, we look forward to hearing your thoughts.

The big picture probably puts us in the World Series…but losing.
It is not that there is a specific American League team that will definitely be there and definitely beat us (although a Boston 1986 reversal is a strong possibility). But a realist has to accept that making the playoffs, winning the first round, second round, and the series is a lot to assume. In fact the math is amazing, if we were a 4:1 favorite for each step (which we won’t be), that makes it 2:3 against our winning it all…luckily the game isn’t played in a calculator.

Pitching looks good, particularly starting…less so in relief.
Starters
I was a big fan of the Pedro trade (of course I loved Roberto Alomar and knew we blew it with Edgardo Alfonzo). A proven, aging AL pitcher, in a hitter’s park, with innings issues moved to a pitcher’s park without DHs and good fielders, and you’re looking good. Downside = injuries. When healthy Pedro rarely has pitched badly for the Mets.

Johan (even September ’07 Santana) should be a true #1 as long as he is healthy…so put in 7 missed starts for pessimism and you’d still have 15-19 wins, say 17 wins.

Pedro starts healthy and should be at least as good as his short stints in ’06 and ’07. If pessimism puts him out half the season and still gives him 12 wins.

El Duque…okay, who knows? Forget pessimism his last 5 seasons he’s had 8,8,9,11,9 wins. Even older this year but with a deeper staff and lower expectations. Lets say 9 wins.

Maine and Perez were pretty darn impressive last year. No one would have said 30 wins from them and the Mets miss the playoffs! One year more experience and less pressure…and probably a few fewer starts pending the injuries above. One probably improves and the other fades a bit. That’s 17 and 13, add a pessimistic injury and you have a combined 27 wins.

Pelfrey (and Vargas or Sosa or…)--the sixth starter is sure to get innings if any pessimism above becomes reality whether off the bench or up from AAA. Yet with no permanent ‘08 position, pressure will be lighter than ‘06-07. A fairly modest prediction would be 8 wins.

So, Starters total 73 wins.
Before you say that’s crazy or horrible, that’s exactly what the Red Sox 6 starters had last year! 3-4 wins per middle and late reliever and we’re in the mid-high 90s (Vegas line 93)! If you want to be optimistic 100 wins, but be realistic.

Mets relievers
Everyone points here as a concern and my realism and memory (albeit aging) support this thinking, but not where others imagine. The assumptions seem to be that long relief has enough depth and our closer will be solid with an occasional lapse, and middle relief is the concern. I reverse these.

Long relief might be okay, but it is no certainty. Pelfrey and El Duque are not relievers, so just assuming one will do this well (like in a World Series) is foolish; and given the likelihood of injury openings in the rotation their availability will be rare. There is a lot of potential and choices for middle relief, but it is realistically a crapshoot.

Billy Wagner has been a very good closer for us. There are no lights-out closers, but he has surpassed realistic expectations with some major exceptions. The problem is that history is not kind to relievers and neither is Shea Stadium, very few excel for 2-4 years. And as simply as that, it is more possible that this one-person position has a letdown than any other.

Short relief by contrast has a number of possibilities. Aaron Heilman has been far from a guarantee but has his days, Duaner Sanchez is a (taxi-)fair possibility with great history, and Sosa leads a group of specialists and hard throwers who have shown strength. There is good reason to expect those 3-4 wins from each.

On the mound, it seems realistic to expect a high 90s number of wins, with the risk of our handing half dozen back to the other team in late in the 9th and beyond.

The interesting thing is that apparently the Mets do have to hit, field, and face others. We’ll look at those in Part 2.

Poll Results..

The last poll that I had on Mets 4 Life was this:

Should RHP Aaron Heilman be a starter?

53% of the people who voted said "No, hes too valuabe to the bullpen."
46% of the people who voted said "Yes, he would thrive in that role."

I never thought that the vote would be this close but I agree that he is too valuable to the bullpen. We have good young starters in Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine. Heilman needs to stay in the bullpen and continue to have success. If Aaron Heilman could prove to be more consistant, he would be one of the better 8th inning guys in the National League.

I still wouldn't mind if he was to be turned into a starter, but only if we had multiple late inning relievers. A rotation of Pedro, Maine, Perez, Heilman, and Pelfrey sounds pretty good to me.

Possible Moves for Omar

We have reached the slowest part of the off-season and well, there is simply nothing to write about unless the signing of Matt Clement and Josh Towers.. but that has no effect on the Mets... but I've been thinking, what smart moves could Omar make? Well, here is a few suggestions from me...

Trade for Johan Santana...

I love our prospects but we need to get an edge. I would perfer that Omar waits until he becomes a free-agent next off-season but if we can pull a trade off that doesn't include Fernando Martinez, then I'm fine with it. Although most fans would haunt Omar Minaya for years if one of those prospects backfired in our faces, just like Scott Kazmir.


Sign Freddy Garcia to an incentive-laden contract with an option for 09'...

Freddy Garcia won't be ready until near the All-Star break but we need options. Gracia seems interested and there just simply aren't any better options. Unless you count Bartolo Colon, but he isn't even touching 90 MPH in the winter leagues. If Garcia would come back to form, the fans would love Omar Minaya again.



Sign Octavio Dotel to a 1-year contract with a vesting option for 09'...

Dotel is a very good reliable reliever out of the pen, when he is healthy. The thing is, he can't stay healthy.. but when he is, he can be a Duaner Sanchez type of pitcher. We need depth in our bullpen and that is what we lacked last season. Adding Octavio to the mix would definitely help solve that problem.



Sign Kevin Mench to a 1-year deal...

The recently acquired RF Ryan Church, is a very light hitting outfielder against left-handed pitchers.. so we need a platoon partner that can absolutely mash left-handers. Kevin Mench is our man. Last season, in 156 at-bats against Left-handers, Mench hit .314 with 8 homers and 26 RBI's. Combine that with Ryan Church vs right-handers, and we have a two headed monster in RF for 2008.

Sign Jason Jennings to a 1-2 year deal...

I know most of you are totally against him but in 2006 he was very good for the Rockies... and in the first half of 2007 he was decent with a 1-4 record and 4.07 ERA in 10 games started. The reason his record is so bad is because the Houston Astros offense was anemic all of last season... but he did blow up in the second half of the season, but thats the risk that your going to have to take.


Trade for Huston Street, and Joe Blanton...

Bullpen help? Check. Starting Pitcher? Check. Lets kill two birds with one stone. I would be more than willing to give 4-5 good prospects for a very good young closer and an innings eating SP. All I ask is that we do everything in our power to keep Fernando Martinez in a Mets uniform. Any prospect beyond him is as good as gone if we can get a package of both Huston Street and Joe Blanton.

I think all of these moves would be smart, but some would be risky. Either way I still believe that Mike Pelfrey should start for a full season in Flushing. If one of these starters were to be signed, we would just simply put Orlando Hernandez in the bullpen and keep Pelfrey as our #5. In my opinion, Kevin Mench would be a very smart signing for the Mets, and we should wait for Santana to be a free-agent at the end of the season... but if Omar pulls the trigger, I'll be fine with that too, just as long as we still have Fernando Martinez.

Mets sign Andy Cavazos

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, via Metsblog, the Mets have signed 26 year old minor league free agent RHP Andy Canvazos. He has been in the minors since 1999, and has had some major league experience. Last year with the Cardinals, Andy went 0-0 with a 10.05 ERA in 17 games. in 20 innings pitched, he gave up 16 walks while striking out 15. This signing is most definitely a low risk high reward type. Omar is trying to find cheap options for the bullpen and he was probley looking at Canvazos's AAA stats from a year ago:

2-5/3.21 era/44 games/47.2 innings pitched/48 k's/ 26 walks.

It seems to me that he walks to many hitters and that is what comes back to bite him in the rear. Maybe in February when pitchers and catchers report, Rick Peterson and Brian Schnedier can work with him and get his control back.

Mets Salaries

I wanted to see how much The Wilpons are spending this year (08). These numbers are from Cots Baseball Contracts. The names that are bolded have options or are in their last years of their contract. Take a look.....

1. Carlos Beltran $18,500,000.00
   
2. Carlos Delgado $16,000,000.00
3. Pedro Martinez $11,000,000.00
4. Billy Wagner $10,500,000.00
5. Moises Alou $7,500,000.00
6. Orlando Hernandez $6,500,000.00
7. Luis Castillo $6,000,000.00
8. David Wright $5,000,000.00
9. Brian Schneider $4,900,000.00
10. Jose Reyes $4,000,000.00
11. Scott Schowenweis $3,600,000.00
12. Ramon Castro $2,300,000.00
13. Matt Wise $1,200,000.00
14. Marlon Anderson $1,050,000.00
15. Damian Easley $950,000.00

The Following players must go through the arbitration process or I cannot find the players salary. The estimated '08 salary for each player is listed to the right of his name.

1. Duaner Sanchez $ 700,000
   
2. Oliver Perez $ 4,000,000.00
   
3. John Maine $ 3,000,000.00
   
4. Aaron Heilman $ 1,000,000.00
   
5. Ryan Church $ 500,000.00
   
6. Brian Stokes $ 380,000.00
   
7. Endy Chavez $ 950,000.00
   
8. Jorge Sosa $ 1,000,000.00

So after getting dizzy from counting and typing all those 0's, the total amount the Wilpons will be forking out this season is about $110,500,000.00. This is including the ESTIMATED salaries above, and is not including the Draft, minor league players and other team expenses.

In past 7 years the Mets have spent over $100,000,000.00 four times.

• Opening Day payrolls for 25-man roster
  
• 2007: $115,231,663
  
• 2006: $101,084,963
• 2005: $101,305,821
• 2004: $ 96,660,970
• 2003: $117,476,429
• 2002: $ 94,633,593
• 2001: $ 93,674,429
• 2000: $ 79,800,000

Last year, only the Yankees and Red Sox spent more money than the Mets. In 2009, the Mets payroll might be lower than in 2008. This all depends on two things...

A) What free-agents the Mets sign.
B) If they re-sign any of our own players.

I'm hoping that the Twins decide to keep Johan Santana and let him become a free-agent at the end of this upcoming season. This will enable the Mets to pay him money and keep all of their prospects, as opposed to trading 5 player to the Twins for 1...The Braves 1B Mark Texeria is also a free-agent at the end of the '08 season. Look for Omar & Co. to try and sign some big name players next November.

Juan Padilla Back in Mets Uniform!

ANTHONY McCARRON of the Daily News is reporting:

Juan Padilla, a right handed reliever who has missed the last two seasons because of two elbow surgeries, agreed to a minor-league contract with the Mets on Friday and said he hopes to compete for a spot in the team's crowded bullpen.

Padilla, 30, was 3-1 with a 1.49 ERA in 24 games for the Mets in 2005 but hasn't pitched in the majors since undergoing Tommy John surgery and another operation on his pronator tendon (in the forearm). But, he said in a telephone interview yesterday, he will be healthy for spring training. He threw a bullpen session recently and was "95%," he said.

"I want to get back on that mound," Padilla said. "I won't be a question mark anymore. I'll be the Juan Padilla from 2005. No one will have to ask me, 'How are you doing?'

"There'll be competition, but I know if I'm healthy, I'll be a tough decision. I won't make it easy for them (to send him to the minors)."

....Added by Ty Flo....

After not making strides to improve the bullpen early in the off-season, it seems as if Omar has picked up the pace. The Mets have many options for the bullpen coming into the 2008 season. This off-season the Mets have acquired...

• Juan Padilla
• Matt Wise
• Steve Register

Hey Omar, add Akinori Otsuka to that list.