Baseball Prospectus: Top 11 Mets Prospects

In Kevin Goldstein's most recent article, he did a write up about the Mets top 11 prospects. As of right now, a lot of scouts and prospect guru's think that the Mets and Astros have the worst two minor league systems around.

Five-Star Prospects
None
Four-Star Prospects
1. Fernando Martinez, OF
Three-Star Prospects
2. Jon Niese, LHP
3. Eddie Kunz, RHP
4. Wilmer Flores, SS
5. Brant Rustich, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
6. Nathan Vineyard, LHP
7. Scott Moviel, RHP
8. Bobby Parnell, RHP
9. Dan Murphy, 3B
10. Ruben Tejada, SS/2B
11. Stephen Clyne, RHP

Just Missing: Nick Carr, RHP; Nick Evans, 1B; Francisco Pena, C

I wouldn't be surprised if one of the two or three star prospects busted out onto the scene and became a 5 star prospect next year. It happened with Deolis Guerra who was ranked as an "average prospect" in last years edition of the Mets top 11 prospects. Now, Deolis Guerra is the top prospect in the Twins system.

Our system could be one of the top systems in a few years.. this is all depending on the Latin scouting and signing department and the upcoming draft in June. If Omar and Co. can use our 3 first round picks wisely, maybe we can steal another David Wright or Albert Pujols...

If anyone has a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, please feel free to share what else Kevin Goldstein said in his post. You can contact me at my e-mail address (tyflomets4life@yahoo.com) if you would like to share.

Keith Law: Top 100 Prospects

Today Keith Law came out with his Top 100 Prospects in the entire MLB. Here's what he had to say about some Mets prospects and former Met prospects..

#10 Mets OF Fernando Martinez... It's been fashionable this offseason for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-à-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown. Martinez's 2007 performance doesn't impress on a quick look, but consider these facts: He played the entire season at age 18 in AA; and he was hitting .309/.372/.409 as late as May 25 before the effects of a contusion on his left hand ruined what remained of his season. He was shut down on June 23 and missed the rest of the year. Martinez shows huge raw power in BP that will make its way into his game performances, and he has a solid approach with good pitch recognition for someone so young. He has good range in center and a plus arm if he outgrows center field and has to move to right. To put his development in more perspective, if he'd played a full year at AA and hit .290/.360/.410 or so, he would have been on pace to debut in the big leagues at 19 or 20 and be a big league regular before he turned 21. He's going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective.


#35 Twins OF Carlos Gomez... Gomez can fly and will be one of the fastest players in the majors once he is there for good. The rest of his game needs work, as his substantial tools don't translate into immediate major league success. He has a very quick bat but relies on his wrists and hands, hitting off his front foot too often and never getting his weight back to drive balls, so he makes contact but right now doesn't project to hit for power. In the field, he is more advanced, running down balls in all directions in center field and showing a 60-65 arm on the 20-80 scale. He missed most of the second half of the 2007 season due to a broken hamate bone in his hand, an injury that can linger into the following season, so his short-term projection isn't bright, but he has star potential if he is given time and instruction.


#80 Twins RHSP Deolis Guerra... Guerra is almost all projection, but there's a lot on which a scout can dream. His velocity is fringe-average, but he'll flash low 90s out of nowhere, and his curveball is inconsistent at best. He has a plus changeup with good fading action. But the appeal here is that he turns 19 in April and is very projectable, with the broad-shouldered frame we look for when forecasting velocity increases and durability. His probability is low, but there's a chance he'll be up in the top 20-30 in a year or two.

I already miss Guerra and Mulvey.. but then again WE HAVE SANTANA!

Wilpon gives in, Wants Santana

According to Joe Christensen at his blog for the Star-Tribune, the Mets have made an offer for Johan Santana.. The offer isf:

Carlos Gomez
Kevin Mulvey
Deolis Guerra
Phillip Humber

Christensen writes that the Twins really want Fernando Martinez and the deal could get done if the Mets decide to include him. Dont go for it. Santana isn't a guarantee they'll win anything. That is way too much talent to give up when the Red Sox and Yankees arent even being asked to give up anything close to this. Guerra and Martinez are way to high end to be giving up and its very highly unlikely the Mets will draft anyone with their kind of potential anytime soon. Omar is said to be too high on both of them to have included either in the package. Trading all of our Latin prospects will definitely hurt Omar Minaya's credibility because Latin players will not want to come to the Mets if Omar trades them all once they turn out to be decent prospects. I still think the best route is to wait it out until the Twins lessen their demands. I say this because I believe Johan Santana said that he would not exercise his No-Trade-Clause during the season. So if the Twins really do want to trade him and get something in return, we should wait until they lessen their demands. I say a fair deal is four prospects not named Deolis Guerra, Fernando Martinez, and Mike Pelfrey.

Oh yeah, I thought we weren't going to trade all 3 of our great OF prospects? Oh how times have changed.

Heres a quick look at the projection and potential of the mentioned prospects...

SP Kevin Mulvey- has the potential to be a #3-#4 starter on a good staff. Average stuff, great command. Was the first choice in the 06 draft for the Mets. Very close to being a MLB player.

OF Fernando Martinez- Very young, was the youngest player in AA last year. Scouts have projected him to have 35-40 HR power. Might have to move positions due to average defensive skills. Potential future All-Star.

CF Carlos Gomez- He is as fast as Jose Reyes and is above average defensively. Some scouts say he has the build to be a 30 HR threat. Potential future All-Star.

SP Phillip Humber- #3 pick in the 2004 draft, under went Tommy John Surgery in his first pro season. Came back last year and looked ok in AAA. Will need another year in the minors but should be ready in 2009. Humber once had the potential to be a #1 starter in the Majors, but he is projected to be a #2-#3 starter at best, maybe even less.

SP Deolis Guerra- Another young super-prospect with #1 starter potential. Has a dominant change-up, and a fastball that keeps gaining velocity as he grows. Had an adequate season last year, but showed dominance at times. He was also one of the youngest players in his league last year. Could be a future #1 and Cy Young Candidate.

SP Mike Pelfrey- Another former 1st round draft pick that has not produced on a consistent basis. Has an above average fastball, but not much after that. His control can be shaky at times. Needs consistency to excel. Projects to be a #2-#3 SP in the Majors if he can develop his secondary pitches, if not he will be moved to the bullpen.

There we go.. What do you think about the deal?